Assessing the winds

If old-timers who remember other notable weather events in the Northwest like the 1962 Columbus Day Storm thought the Nov. 17 windstorm that swept through the area seemed like it was a doozie, they are right.

According to Eastern Washington University meteorology professor Dr. Bob Quinn, our most recent wind event was very much record setting.

Warned well in advance that this storm was coming, and with potential 70 mile-per-hour winds, the region was devastated with the deaths of two people, hundreds of downed trees and power poles, and power outages that, in some cases, lasted several weeks.

"They put out some warnings and basically knew up to 72 hours prior that we were going to get a spectacular wind event," Quinn said. No one can predict precisely what the winds will be, but as it turned out what was forecast was right on with hurricane force and winds that did exceed 70 miles-per-hour.

"Even though that's not the record for the Weather Service (at Spokane) it really is," Quinn said. In the past, thunderstorm gusts, which are highly localized, were slightly faster, he said. "As far as sustained winds, this was it," Quinn said.

This was truly the perfect storm.

"You had three factors that came together," Quinn explained, that made this event so unique, and devastating. "One was you had a very powerful cyclonic storm that came in."

Such storms are very normal winter patterns. Usually as storms pass through the state, the Cascade Mountains tend to weaken them.

But because of how it was organized, this storm intensified as it came down off the Cascades with the center located along the Washington-Canadian border. That is what Quinn called "The primo southwesterly wind quadrant to get the maximum winds."

"The track and location was absolutely perfect," Quinn said.

The third element was the jet stream was racing along at 180-200 miles per hour at 30,000 feet. Quinn likened it to driving down the road and cracking the window. The high-speed wind outside sucks air out of the car.

The powerful jet stream over the low-pressure system caused more lift, intensifying the low. The Columbus Day storm registered at 995.7 millibars while the Nov. 17 event came in lower at a reading of 993.9.

"This is a case, number one, that the forecast models have improved so much that, in fact, they can see this event on the forecast models developing," Quinn said.

The question remains that among notable weather events that have etched themselves in the memories of Northwesterners, where does the Nov. 17 blow rank?

"Here comes the tricky part, was this the 50-year, 100-year, 200-year wind event?" Quinn said. "The answer is all of the above," because of a lack of true statistics beyond the turn of the 20th Century.

Safe to say, "It's the strongest event we've had since the National Weather Service has had good instrumentation," Quinn said. That started in the 1940s.

"It's the strongest event in the 75 years of reasonably accurate records," he said. Based on historical data, Quinn said it was probably the strongest event in the last century, that being based purely on anecdotal records.

Quinn remembered the 1962 Columbus Day Storm as he was doing undergrad studies at Oregon State University.

The remnant of Typhoon Freda in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the storm raced up the coast and caused an estimated $230 million - $1.8 billion in 2015 dollars - in damage and 46 fatalities.

"The winds on the eastern part of the state were nowhere near what the west side got," Quinn said, specifically in the Willamette Valley. At the Mt. Hebo station in the Coast Range gusts were reported in excess of 145 miles-per-hour.

Days after, Quinn experienced the damage where 600-800 acres of trees 18-24 inches in diameter and ready for harvest were all knocked down leaving some piles of timber 30 feet high in places.

Paul Delaney can be reached at pdelaney@cheneyfreepress.com.