Cheney may be short land to handle projected growth

“If you build it, he will come,” is how the saying goes.

Substitute “they” for “he.” Switch the saying around, add in “Cheney” and the city’s concerns about land use, and the saying might become “When they come, can Cheney build it?”

According to the recently completed Spokane Region Population Study, which utilizes population projects for the county from the state Office of Financial Management, Cheney could see an additional 2,922 people move into town between 2017 — 2037. The challenge for the city is that if zoning and land use practices remain the same, the city would have the zoned land capacity to accommodate housing for 2,132 of them — leaving 790 people either looking at other cities or other options.

“These are straight line (figures),” Cheney planner Brett Lucas told the Planning Commission at its Sept. 14 meeting. “If major development occurred, like a large business that brings in more people, we would have to revise.”

Based upon an initial report by Spokane County Planning Department, the data presented to the commission indicates Cheney isn’t the only city in the county facing a land deficit when compared to population projections over the next 20-plus years. To the north, Airway Heights is projected to grow by another 4,250 people, bringing it to a projected total of 13,193 in 2037, but leaving 1,998 individuals without somewhere to live.

The city with the largest land vs. population challenge is Spokane Valley, projected to grow by another 18,521 to 114,293, but with land available for all but 8,045 of these projected new residents.

On the flip side is the city of Spokane, which is projected to grow by another 16,350 people by 2037, but has land capacity to handle an additional 32,530, leaving it a surplus of space for another 16,180 new residents. The unincorporated portions of the county are in even better shape, with appropriately zoned land providing a capacity for 41,329 extra residents, but only forecasting 15,260, leaving a surplus of 26,069.

Even if Cheney’s population projections for 2037 turned out to be accurate, and according to the OFM data, in 2010 it was 376 people ahead of its 2000-2010 projections, the city’s total population of 14,746 would still only be 2 percent of the entire population for Spokane County.

“The bottom line is we’re a small piece of the puzzle, a real small piece,” Lucas said.

OFM’s data is a medium range, Lucas said, and takes into account how growth varies over time through birth rates, migration and economic factors. The county land use data takes into consideration such things as urban growth expansions and annexations, such as what Airway Heights and the city of Spokane did in 2012 when both cities annexed a large portion of the eastern West Plains.

And while it may seem the best tactic is to cutoff the population growth when available land capacity has been reached, it’s not that simple nor practical for cities to do so. Factors such as economic expansion through new business relocation are what drives population growth — and more jobs in a community means more money in the city coffers. Lucas said in Cheney’s case, Eastern Washington University is the driving force, with a growing student population that generally includes growth in staffing.

Right now the challenge for Cheney is accommodating the projected growth with the land it has, rather than adding more through annexation or expansion of the UGA. Public Works Director Todd Ableman told the council that the city historically tries to maintain a balance between multi-family and single-family zoning, and in order to continue that into the future, zoning densities on some parcels will need to be re-examined.

There is also some land currently zoned commercial that really acts as residential that will also need to be considered for change. These and other options will be explored at upcoming Planning Commission meetings as the city begins its comprehensive plan review process.

John McCallum can be reached at jmac@cheneyfreepress.com.